India’s catastrophic second wave of COVID-19 crisis

Narrative and data visualization

About this project

Source: Wikimedia, REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas, 印度三哥MANU马怒’s YouTube Channel

Source: Wikimedia, REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas, 印度三哥MANU马怒’s YouTube Channel

Concept overview

This interactive chart of India’s daily cases with the specific “Shahi Snan” (bathing dates of Indian biggest religious festival “Kumbh Mela”) dates marked out shows the correlation between the spike of COVID-19 cases in India and the mass gathering for “Shahi Snan” with no social distancing or protections, which can be considered as one of the reasons why India is experiencing a catastrophic COVID surge.

Statement of need

Learners need to understand why India is getting so bad at COVID-19 situations, and what are some of the most dominant reasons that lead to this.

Target audience

High school to adult learners who have basic data interpretation literacy, which includes:

  • How to read data

  • What can bar chart tell regarding the data

Learning goals and objectives

Goals

Understand the correlation of India’s mass gathering for “Shahi Snan” with no social distancing or protections and the country’s soaring COVID-19 cases.

Objectives

By reading through the infographics, learners will be able to:

  • Identify the COVID-19 pandemic in India since 2020 and understand the trend of it under control or soaring back

  • Explain how mass gathering has resulted in the surge in India’s COVID-19 cases

  • Critiquing reasons that lead to this surge in India

  • Understand the fact that the pandemic isn’t over in anyways, and India’s soaring cases might bring another challenge for the global economy to recover.

Design thinking and process

When the world is working on speeding up the vaccination process and recovering the economy, what is happening in India right now makes a clear announcement to the world: this is not over. Starting from March, cases in India have doubled from 10,000 to 100,000 per day. The worse thing is that the cases didn’t stop soaring - since April 24, there are more than 300,000 daily new cases in India, and until today (May 12, 2021), there are still more than 380,000 cases every day. The soaring is terrifying - the country is running out of beds, oxygen, and all medical supplies. The mass gathering of Kumbh Mela, which is one of the biggest religious festivals in the world that happens every 12 years, is to be seen as “the” reason for this surge - no social distancing, no COVID testing, no mask. I think it would interesting to use India’s daily new case data to compare against the four most important “bathing” (Shahi Snan) dates and how they are correlated, as a way to analyze the situation in India and how political decision-making can ruin ordinary people’s lives.

Development process

Tools used: Data Wrapper, Google Spreadsheet

For this project, I used an online data visualization tool called Data Wrapper that I am very familiar with for my previous course work and professional work. As for the data hunting, I extracted data from Our World in Data’s COVID-19 data that they update based on the data grabbed from the number of cases that each country’s health department/government report on a daily basis. By using Google spreadsheet, I did data cleaning on extracting India’s new daily cases, and calculated “the 7-day average”. When linking it to Data Wrapper’s server, it can update automatically as I update my spreadsheet.

For the visualization part of the work, I decide to use a line chart which is the best form of visualization for showing the trend over time. The 2 to 14 days of the incubation period is essential to understand COVID-19 cases in relation to the specific dates of Shani Snan. I calculated the incubation periods for all of the four dates and found out that they overlap each other - thus, I highlighted the area of 2 days after the first Shani Snan and the 14 days after the last one as the incubation period for the four series.

Later on, I decided to do a second line chart to compare India, Nepal and the World based on daily new cases per million people. The metrics here is essential for fair comparison because the population base for the two countries and the world are too different - numbers themselves do not tell a fair story: numerically, Nepal only has 8,000 new cases per day while India has more than 350,000 new cases, while Nepal’s daily new cases has increased more than 1200% compared to April’s, while India’s percentage of increase is 787%. One way to place them on the same level is to calculate “daily new cases per million people”, which I grabbed the data from Our World in Data. Here is the google sheet I use to create the line chart.

Applied learning theories and design principles

Cognitive Theory of Multimedia Learning (R. Mayer)

The design of this project follows a number of Mayer’s CTML design principles and visual design principles in order to create a clean and effective design to reduce the extraneous load and maximize germane load when users are using the app. Here is a list of CTML principles I used for this prototype:

  • Spatial Contiguity Principle: humans learn best when relevant text and visuals are physically close together.

    • Text annotation is placed next to the corresponding data point, which saves the effort of learners. Thus offload some cognitive load when they are reading and understanding the graphic.

  • Signaling Principle: humans learn best when they are shown exactly what to pay attention to on the screen.

    • The time frame of the event start date and the 14-day incubation period are designed in different colors with different symbols, which signal that different interpretations need to be implemented for different data points in order to understand the relationship between the dates and the number of daily new cases.

Multiple Representation Principle in CTML (S. Ainsworth)

Multiple representations are used to support and enhance learning outcomes. They play a complementary role when learners exploit differences in computational properties or information by switching between representations and selecting the appropriate representation for the task at hand. The line chart with the variables of time of the event and the number of cases can be seen as multiple representations serving its constructing function.

Constructing function means using two or more representations so when learners integrate them they achieve a deeper understanding of the domain - the combination of time of the event and the number of cases being represented on the same chart shows the correlation between the two variables, thus help the learners to see how massive gathering have affected the increase of COVID-19 daily new cases for India.

Information visualization theories (E. Tufte)

Visualizations help to describe some structure, patterns and anomalies in the data, as well as communicate information to people. According to Edward Tufte, there are four essential guidelines for visual information representation:

  • Graphical Excellence: focus on the usability of data visualization and provide learners with precise and valuable information.

  • Visual Integrity: representation should neither distort the underlying data nor create a false impression or interpretation of that data.

  • Maximizing the Data-Ink Ratio: best utilize space of the actual data representation space and the annotating text; all superfluous elements should be removed in order to reduce the learners’ extraneous cognitive load.

  • Aesthetic Elegance: Tufte’s interpretation of aesthetic elegance is not based on the “physical beauty” of an information visualization but rather the simplicity of the design evoking the complexity of the data clearly. Data visualization isn’t really about how pretty and artistic the product is, but rather if the graphic can communicate its information with the readers in a simple and efficient way in all means.

Prototype

While the world is gradually recovering from COVID-19 pandemic by aggressively implementing vaccination process, India is jumping out of the spectrum - at the moment, there are roughly 800,000 new daily cases worldwide, while India is taking almost 40% of the total increase, regardless of the country’s new daily cases used to dropped down to 10,000 to 20,000 by the beginning of 2021. Why is it happening?

Most researchers, policymakers and epidemiologists have attributed this to the mass gathering of Kumbh Mela, which is one of the biggest festivals in Hinduism that happens every 12 years. Despite the fact that the pandemic isn’t over, Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided not to cancel the festival as a way of winning more votes for his campaign from Hindu devotees. Shahi Snan, which is the bathing Hindus believe the river is holy and taking a dip in it will cleanse them of their sins and bring salvation, become the major super-spreader events that make India’s COVID-19 cases soaring.

“While the world's attention is focused on India, the world's worst-hit country by the coronavirus in terms of the rising number, its northern neighbor Nepal reported more than 7,000 daily cases for three days in a row from Sunday to Tuesday, "turning into a mini-India" as doctors at Nepal's Bheri hospital reportedly said,” according to Global Times. Until May 16, 2021, Nepal is still experiencing over 7,000 new cases every day - this situation is very much likely to be correlated to India’s soaring COVID crisis due to Kumbh Mela that a lot of Nepali Hindu devotees also crossed the border and celebrated the festival as well during the time.

The out-of-control situation isn’t just about India itself but also has brought its neighbor Nepal into another epicenter of the pandemic when the world is recovering and getting better.

Limitations and future work

I think it is a pretty clear and simple data visualization project that tells its story out in text and data. It would be great to have this topic to be a data-driven story that analyzes the reasons of India’s soaring cases and deaths, in relation to religious events, policy-making, medical resources, vaccination processes, etc., since what India is experiencing isn’t a one-factor situation, and it would possibly affect the rest the world.

Reference

Ainsworth, S. (2014). The multiple representation principle in multimedia learning. In R. E. Mayer (Ed.), Cambridge handbooks in psychology. The Cambridge handbook of multimedia learning (p. 464–486). Cambridge University Press.

Ellis-Petersen, H. (2021, April 30). Nepal facing deadly Covid wave similar to India, doctors warn. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/apr/30/nepal-facing-deadly-covid-wave-similar-to-india-doctors-warn

Global Times. (2021, May 5). Chinese enterprises stand with locals, try to prevent Nepal becoming “mini-India” in virus cases. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1222721.shtml

How to Use Mayer’s 12 Principles of Multimedia Learning [Examples Included]. (2020, July 24). Water Bear Learning. https://waterbearlearning.com/mayers-principles-multimedia-learning/

Interaction Design Foundation. (2019, August 7). Guidelines for Good Visual Information Representations. The Interaction Design Foundation. https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/guidelines-for-good-visual-information-representations

Pandey, B. G. (2021, May 10). India Covid: Kumbh Mela pilgrims turn into super-spreaders. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57005563

The Week. (2021, May 10). Kumbh Mela was super-spreader event in India: Report. The Week. https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2021/05/10/kumbh-mela-was-super-spreader-event-in-india-report.html

印度三哥MANU马怒. (2021, April 30). 實拍印度火葬場,燒人的木頭堆得三層樓高!實情遠比報導還嚴重? [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aP1Szr9Lexs&t=341s